Dispatches from Beirut: Lebanon's New Electoral Geography

Here are a few maps for you, which detail the country's new electoral divisions. While convincing analysis of the impact of these changes is hard to find, the Daily Star contends that Beirut's new divisions will offer the opposition parties a greater chance of electoral success. In contrast the 2005 elections, when the pro-government Future Movement swept Beirut's Parliamentary elections,

New district divisions have separated Beirut into a Sunni-dominated zone, a Christian-majority area with a significant Armenian Orthodox bloc and a mixed district with a large Shia population. Published voting tables and district divisions indicate that Beirut's 19 seats will be split somehow, but stop short of offering evidence for steady predictions.

The shorthand for understanding contemporary Lebanese politics, and thus the below maps, is that Shias generally support the opposition (particularly Hezbollah and Amal), Sunnis typically support the government (most prominently, the Future Movement), the Druze tend to favor the government (behind Walid Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party), and the Christians are split (between, primarily, Samir Geagea's pro-government Lebanese Forces and Michel Aon's opposition Free Patriotic Movement). The political divide between latter group, the Daily Star concludes, will mean that Lebanon's Christians will likely decide balance of power in the 2009 Parliamentary elections. If Lebanon's history has taught us anything, however, these alliances can change at a moment's notice. (See Now Lebanon's "Beginners' Guide to Lebanon's Major Political Groupings," as well as Al Jazeera English's "Who's Who In Lebanese Politics.")

Now Lebanon is currently featuring a report by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, which details the changing religious divisions of Beirut's electoral districts to a greater extent than the maps posted below but there is no web link to the pdf.