More of the Same But Twisted Anew

I mentioned yesterday that I saw from my balcony what may have been an Israeli jet in the sky to the south and west of me. I saw another today (and heard its ominous roar).

As a Lebanese security official stated this morning,

More than four Israeli jets began overflying most of the southern part of the country at 0630 GMT

This violation of Lebanese airspace, sovereignty, and UN resolution 1701 is not anything new. But what is troubling is the flyovers' alignment with statements like this one from Israeli Deputy Defense Minister, Matan Vilani:

The most dangerous possibility for us is to see Iran's proxies take control of the Gaza Strip and Lebanon because the fates of both regions are connected.

When Israeli officials begin to compare Lebanon to Gaza, the whole world should shudder, not because the officials are anywhere close to the truth, but because if Israel deals with Lebanon in the same way that it has been approaching Gaza (or, for that matter, as it has dealt with Lebanon at any point in its history), there will be a significant number of casualties.

Moreover, a US warship, the USS Cole, is on its way back to international waters just off the coast of Lebanon.

I don't mean to be an alarmist; the USS Cole was here in February without immediate consequence and as mentioned, Israeli jets frequently fly over Lebanon. But these moves, given the present context, are troubling.

Sunday in Hamra

While fighting has intensified outside Beirut, things seem to be returning to some degree of uneasy normalcy here in the city. We took a long walk through Hamra today, something quite a few people seemed to have done as well. There were far more cars and pedestrians in the neighborhood than anytime since last Tuesday. It wasn't that much different than any other lazy Sunday afternoon in West Beirut. I was actually surprised by how relatively little evidence there is in the neighborhood that there had been fierce gun battles here for nearly 24 straight hours on Thursday and Friday. The main visual change now is that we see the flags and stencils of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party all over the neighborhood (the second photograph was taken by Dr. PVM):





It seems that in this case, the red SSNP symbol was painted over the communist hammer and sickle (this is the only one that we saw like this), but whether that was an act of aesthetic aggression or synthesis is another question. It could very well be the latter, as the SSNP became quite Marxist in the 1970s and, I presume, still is (I am still learning about this party, which had been completely invisible from the Lebanese political scene the whole time I've been here but now seems to have quite a presence, particularly in Hamra).

More prevalent, were symbols and flags that looked like this:



There aren't any Hezbollah or Amal symbols, further suggesting that the SSNP either took the lead in controlling this neighborhood or were the only ones who remembered to bring their paint.

Also in Hamra, are the remains of a few Hariri posters that used to cover the neighborhood to a greater degree than even the SSNP flags now do.



There were several stray bullet holes, but far fewer than I expected to see. And besides, much of Beirut's landscape is still riddled with bullet holes from the 1975-1990 Civil War:


(The Beirut Holiday Inn, which was heavily used as a sniper location during the 1975-1990 Civil War; source: www.michaeltotten.com)

So the only way to tell which ones were new was if the holes were in glass or in a new building.



Nearby, there is also Hariri's Future TV channel, which was set on fire on Wednesday (or was it Thursday?). This photo of its charred remains was taken by a colleague of mine:



As reported in the media, opposition gunmen have largely handed control over to the Lebanese military. There is not an ostensible presence of militas on the streets, but neither is there much of an army presence either. On the road toward Hariri's residence, there are tanks and military-controlled road-blocks (these pictures would have been better but we had to conceal our camera from the soldiers):



But on our way back to AUB, we walked down Sidani St., which, more than any other street in the neighborhood, was covered in SSNP flags. And exactly at the same point where we were on Thursday, when we started hearing gunfire very close to us, we noticed an abandoned building covered in SSNP flags and stencils and guarded by a non-uniformed man with a machine gun in his hand and an ammunition belt around his waist. He smiled when we walked by and gave us an earnest greeting, asking us, in German, whether we were German. "No, sorry!" we exclaimed, smiling and continuing our walk. I really wanted to get a photograph of him or of the building but my better half reminded me that months ago when she was out photographing the neighborhood, she had tried to take a picture of that very same building (without, then, all the political symbols) only to have a hand pushed into her lens, preventing her from getting the shot.

I heard from a friend in the neighborhood a few moments ago that other people continue to see non military snipers camped out in the upper floors of abandoned or under-construction buildings (of which there are plenty in Hamra).

This, coupled with the fact that fighting has ratcheted up considerably in areas outside Beirut (I just learned that a colleague witnessed a serious gunfight just outside her apartment in Saida, which left innocent civilians dead), is disconcerting, to say the least. And it puts the calmness that I'm seeing in Hamra in some perspective.

In light of all this, AUB just announced that the university will be closed on Monday.

Some Semblance of a Temporary Settlement and More Analysis

Amal MP Ali Hassan Khalil in a press conference today:

We confirm to our brothers in Beirut that we will withdraw arms from the streets and hand security over to the army, but we will continue our civil disobedience.

So Hezbollah, Amal, and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party have left their posts in West Beirut and the military has taken control of all conflicted neighborhoods. In exchange, the government has agreed to reverse its two decisions that started this conflict. They will now back off Hezbollah's communication system and reinstate the airport's security chief. PM Siniora's governing coalition stopped short, however, of meeting two of the opposition's other demands: the formation a unity government and electoral reforms. Therefore, Khalil declared, Amal, Hezbollah, and the SSNP will continue engaging in civil disobedience until these issues are resolved. This means that they will continue blocking the roads to the airport and most likely will also continue to block the port.

We grabbed something to eat in Hamra this evening and, indeed, the opposition's militias were no longer there. The streets were relatively empty, though we did see more pedestrians and cars than yesterday.

MP Walid Jumblat, whose Druze militas in the Chouf had been engaging in fierce fighting with Hezbollah, urged his followers and the rest of Lebanon to exercise restraint.

As I said earlier, commentary and analysis are popping up all over now; here is a take on the situation, which you won't see in the New York Times, from Electronic Lebanon editor, Samah Idriss:

Clearly there is a strategy from the government and pro-government forces to portray Hizballah as the outsiders, to try to portray Hizballah as a force coming to change the nature of Beirut by bringing in Shi'ite elements, Iranian elements, Persian elements, barbarian elements, etc. All oriental stereotypes that mainstream western media and some mainstream Arab media will quickly adopt. It is not certain, however, that this portrayal for Hizballah could work in the Arab media because Hizballah is widely respected as the major defender for the Arab cause, for the Palestinian cause.

Across the Middle East the mainstream Sunni populations don't view Hizballah or its leader Hassan Nasrallah as a sectarian leader or simply a Shi'ite leader. However, the mainstream pro-government media in Lebanon attempt to portray Hizballah as a completely sectarian movement, in tune with the political lines fostered by the governments of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, France and the US.

As Idriss suggests, negative portrayals of Hezbollah are not unique to Western media and politicians. But while I certainly have met plenty of people in Lebanon who think Hezbollah (and often, by extension, Shia) are nothing but a bunch of terrorists, the difference here is that nearly everyone at least understands that Hezbollah is a political party that represents, governs, and defends a large number of people. Even Siniora today, in his speech, expressed gratitude for Hezbollah's ongoing defense of Lebanon from continual Israeli invasions (speaking of which, by the way, we saw what was most likely an Israeli jet fly high over Beirut this afternoon, violating UN resolution 1701, as it regularly does).

This is not to say that you should discount all Western representations of Hezbollah, or Lebanon more generally. Cal Perry has been giving very good, nuanced reports on CNN, which actually mention not only the July 2006 war (something most American journalists conveniently forget when they discuss Lebanon's recent history) but also the rise in support for Hezbollah during and after that war. I wonder, though, whether CNN in America is showing these same reports, or if it only plays those from its more conservative journalist in Lebanon (whose name I can't remember right now). The CNN we watch here is specifically for international audiences.

In addition to Barack Obama, John McCain is now weighing in on the situation as well.

Worth Reading

Now that the fighting has calmed down (though definitely has not stopped), a slew of commentary and analysis is beginning to pour in from all sides.

Electronic Lebanon, a branch of Electronic Intifada, has been publishing some excellent reports on the situation, from a helpfully critical perspective. I strongly recommend reading Maureen Clare Murphy's piece, as well as this one by IRIN, among the others. Rami Khouri's column in today's Daily Star is also worth reading.

Robert Fisk sees parallels between the political situation in West Beirut and that in Gaza:

When Hamas became part of the Palestinian government, the West rejected it. So Hamas took over Gaza. When the Hizbollah became part of the Lebanese government, the Americans rejected it. Now Hizbollah has taken over west Beirut. The parallels are not exact, of course. Hamas won a convincing electoral victory. Hizbollah was a minority in the Lebanese government; its withdrawal from cabinet seats with other Shias was occasioned by Mr Siniora's American-defined policies and by their own electoral inability to change these. The Lebanese don't want an Islamic republic any more than the Palestinians. But when Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, the Hizbollah chairman, told a press conference that this was a "new era" for Lebanon, he meant what he said.

Prime Minisiter Fouad Siniora addressed the country this afternoon, urging Hezbollah to cooperate with the government to end the crisis. In particular, he said (the translation here by Lebanon Now seems a bit choppy):

First, neither of us is non-partisan any longer, and we must agree on a neutral mediator to help us reach agreement and solution.
Secondly, the arms of Hezbollah are today more than ever an issue that necessitates discussion… Hezbollah’s arms must be pointed at resisting Israel only, and with the agreement of the Lebanese and the government. Else, the only role of the arms is illegal. Hence, we must search with Hezbollah for a solution through constitutional institutions.
Third, we must amend the Lebanese democratic solution, but not through violence… So we may need a transitional formula:
1) The two decisions of the government have not yet been decreed, and will be left to the discretion of the army.
2) Withdrawing gunmen from the streets, ending the sit-in and handing security over to the national army.
3) The election of a consensus president immediately with a national-unity government in which neither party can force its beliefs.
4) The discussion of an electoral law in parliament.
5) The promise of all parties to abide by a code of media ethics that we can build with our own hands.

As of this posting, Hezbollah has not yet responded.

I could hear two or three gunshots Hamra shortly after Siniora's speech.

A Word from the US Embassy in Lebanon

I received this message from the US Embassy earlier today:

As stated in the current Travel Warning for Lebanon, the Department of State continues to strongly urge that Americans defer travel to Lebanon and that American citizens in Lebanon consider carefully the risks of remaining.

In a crisis situation, American citizens are responsible for arranging commercial or private means of transportation to depart Lebanon. American citizens wishing to depart Lebanon are urged to do so, keeping in mind that options are currently limited.

Major roads to Beirut International Airport remain blocked, and there is only limited airline service at present. Violent clashes in several areas in and around Beirut have been reported, and it is still not known when the airport road will re-open and normal air transport services will resume. The main road to Damascus remains blocked.

American citizens wanting to depart may wish to consider chartering private watercraft to Cyprus. Until such time as travel services out of Lebanon become available, the U.S. Embassy urges American citizens to ensure they have an adequate supply of food, water and other essential items and to remain safely inside their homes. Americans are encouraged to review their travel plans following resumption of normal air services.

The U.S. Embassy remains open for business; however, Nonimmigrant Visa processing has been suspended except under special circumstances. American Citizen Services and Immigrant Visa processing are functioning normally. American citizens are urged to avoid the airport road and any other areas where demonstrators are gathered, and to monitor the local media for information regarding the security situation.

In other words, if you're American and want to leave: get a boat or start swimming. If you're Lebanese and you want to get out and stay with your relatives in America: too bad.

A better plan, which a few American visitors I know have done, is to take a taxi toward the Syrian border near Tripoli and then travel by land down to Damascus, from where you can fly home. Having said that, there are reports that fighting has broken out in Tripoli. Moreover, those same Americans informed us that while Syria is processing travel visas much more quickly than it usually does (it can take an American up to twelve hours to get a visa at the Syrian border), there is a flood of Syrians at the border trying to get back into Syria.

As for B and me, we feel better for now about staying. There is a good chance that classes will be held next week (although, according to one woman in one of my classes, most students have gone to their family homes in the mountains or elsewhere outside Beirut). And besides, I think we are safer here on campus than traveling, particularly since Hezbollah and its allies seem to have taken the battles to other parts of the country now. That said, we have received word from a friend of ours in a neighborhood in southern Beirut that fighting is still going on there (as media reports confirm).

Struggles over the Media

More media outlets have been attacked.

Naharnet is reporting that the Armenian Sevan radio station in the Mar Elias section of Beirut has been set on fire.

The Arabiya tv news channel in Akkar, according to Naharnet, has been besieged.

At the same time, according to Lebanon Now,

Journalists and media personnel have reached the Future Channel building in Qontari after holding a march from the Bourj Al-Ghazali Tower in Tabaris in solidarity with Future media employees, who were routed out of their offices and harassed by opposition members.

In the southwest neighborhood of Tariq al-Jedideh, two people were killed and twelve were injured this morning after a funeral convoy was attacked.

Nevertheless, this portion of West Beirut is still calm. After receiving confident assurance of my safety from an AUB security guard, I took a run along the corniche, where a small number of men, women, and children were walking, running, and fishing. It's sunny and 70 degrees today.

A Lebanese Perspective on Obama's Perspective on Lebanon

From Jeha's Nail:

Obama’s statement on Lebanon was most interesting. In the middle of platitudes about the necessity for the “effort to undermine Lebanon's elected government needs to stop”, we get this little gem;

It's time to engage in diplomatic efforts to help build a new Lebanese consensus that focuses on electoral reform, an end to the current corrupt patronage system, and the development of the economy that provides for a fair distribution of services, opportunities and employment.

Yes, we all want those things, and more; it's our country after all.

However, note the fact that he makes no mention of the necessary presidential election. Interestingly, this demand for electoral reform is not far from “opposition” demands, formulated before the current mess. I though official US policy was to ask for the election of a president first.

My take on this is that Obama meant presidential elections, as well as other electoral reforms, when he said "electoral reforms." And anyway, no president will be elected in Lebanon without some sort of electoral reforms. For better or worse, Obama has shown nothing but 100% support for the March 14th governing coalition. In February 2008, for example, Obama said,

We must keep supporting the democratically-elected government of PM Fouad Siniora, strengthening the Lebanese army and insisting on the disarmament of Hezbollah before it leads Lebanon into another unnecessary war."

The difference between Obama and the Bush administration on this matter, according to Obama, is in Bush's complete unwillingness to engage in any sort of diplomacy on the matter:

Washington musts rectify the wrong policy of President George Bush in Lebanon and resort to an efficient and permanent diplomacy, rather than empty slogans.

I'd imagine that Obama means diplomacy between March 14th and Hezbollah (and their allies), rather than the US and Hezbollah, but it does correspond with the senator's earlier claim that his potential administration would engage in diplomacy with Iran. March 14th, of course, is in seemingly constant (however fruitless) dialogue with the opposition, so, on the one hand, this might be more of a proposed shift in the US president's rhetoric toward Lebanon rather than in any meaningful policy change. But on the other hand, if Obama is really serious about sitting down with the Iranian government, that could very well affect Lebanon and in ways perhaps that could be seen as beneficial to Hezbollah.

In the meantime, West Beirut, at least in my neck of the woods, is still quiet as ever. There is, however, deadly fighting going on in Halba, in the northern Akkar region of Lebanon.