Summer Reading

Whenever Karim Makdisi has something to say, stop what you're doing and listen. Here's an excerpt from an interview he gave with Electronic Lebanon's Stephan Christoff:

Lebanon is facing several critical issues. First, there is a tremendous social and economic crisis in this country, there is a 45 billion dollar debt, one of the largest debts per capita in the world, resulting from over a decade of neo-liberal economic policies that simply didn't work throughout the 1990s.

In truth there is little opposition towards the economic policies that the government is putting forward, that is to say that the opposition in Lebanon is more or less in agreement with the government in regards to social and economic policy. Both the opposition and the government have attempted to sweep the main social and economic issues facing Lebanon under the carpet. This is one major issue.

Nicholas Noe, the editor of www.mideastwire.com (worth the subscription) and Voice of Hezbollah: The Statements of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, writes in today's New York Times:

In the wake of a narrowly averted civil war here last month, the United States now has a unique opportunity to help build something that all the parties to the conflict have said they very much want: a strong Lebanese Armed Forces.

Unfortunately, even though the Bush administration has provided more than $300 million in tactical aid to Lebanon since the Syrian withdrawal of 2005, it still apparently refuses to provide the kind of strategic weapons — guided rockets, tanks, modern artillery and intelligence-gathering equipment — that are desperately needed in this task. During her visit to Beirut this week, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice didn’t even mention the issue.

The reason for this, American and Lebanese officials say privately, is a longstanding prohibition against supplying Lebanese forces with advanced equipment that could be used against Israel.

This “red line” remains even though Hezbollah has far more dangerous weaponry, and despite Washington’s commitment to build up the authority of the state. It is a testament to how short-sighted and contradictory the American approach to Lebanon has been.

Joshua Landis writes in Syria Comment:

The US and France are struggling to find a common post-Doha policy on Hizbullah and Syria. France is exploiting the appointment of President Michel Suleiman to rehabilitate relations with Syria, which have been in the dumps since 2005. Washington is not happy with the Franco-Syrian honeymoon. This comes as little surprise, for it marks the failure of Washington's Lebanon policy. President Bush wanted to wrest Lebanon from Syria's sphere of influence as part of an over-arching effort to reform the Greater Middle East. It should be stated that Washington succeeded in driving Syria's military out of Lebanon in 2005. But far from being able to accept this as a victory, President Bush stubbornly insisted on eradicating every expression of Syrian influence from its smaller and divided neighbor - a policy which seemed as unwise as it was unrealizable.

The Wall Street Journal on Barack Obama's Middle East advisers:

In fine-tuning his foreign-policy agenda, Barack Obama is turning to a core group of Middle East experts who have spent more than a decade, in Democratic and Republican administrations, exploring avenues to engaging Iran and Syria.

Chief among them are Dennis Ross, former President Clinton's lead Mideast negotiator; James Steinberg, a deputy national-security adviser under Mr. Clinton; and Daniel Kurtzer, a career diplomat who developed Mideast policy under President Bush and his father.

Some of these experts, such as Messrs. Ross and Steinberg, don't describe themselves as formally part of Sen. Obama's campaign for president. But their involvement illustrates the increasing influence on Sen. Obama's thinking of some of the Democratic Party's foreign-policy veterans, now that the long nominating process is over.

These three men were among the principal authors of Sen. Obama's speech this month on the Middle East before a pro-Israel lobbying group, according to the Obama campaign. The speech was viewed as the candidate's most expansive yet on international affairs. The U.S. senator from Illinois pledged during the address to break from the Bush administration and explore high-level engagements with Iran and Syria in a bid to stabilize Iraq and the broader Middle East.

In interviews, these strategists describe a campaign that sees potential diplomatic openings in the Middle East should Sen. Obama be elected in November and begin pulling U.S. combat troops out of Iraq. But they also acknowledged that there are real lessons to be learned from previous U.S. efforts to engage Tehran and Damascus, during the 1990s, which drew mixed results.

Sen. Obama's philosophy is that you "approach the world, and you approach it through engagement: You shore up alliances, and you engage with enemies," said Mr. Kurtzer, who served as the U.S. ambassador to Israel from 2001 to 2005. "But occasionally you have to hit them, too."

And finally, the Daily Star prints "total bullshit."

Taste the Reconciliation

I had a hard time running along the corniche yesterday evening. It was more crowded than ever. Families sitting by the railing drinking coffee and smoking nargileh; men, women, and children walking six abreast--slowly--gazing at the sunset and soaking in the warm summer air; little kids on bikes swerving through the crowds; and kamikaze rollerbladers barely avoiding running over everyone made for quite an obstacle course.

A friend of mine said that the corniche is a good barometer for the mood in Lebanon. When things are tense, few people will be found by the sea; when the political situation improves, the pedestrians return. So perhaps the crowds yesterday, which seem to be growing on a daily basis and are matched by equally congested masses of people downtown, are a good sign of the confidence Beirutis and tourists hold for their country's political situation.

The confidence is echoed in Lebanon's stock market, which has surged since the Doha settlement last month, and the corresponding real estate market, as I mentioned in earlier posts.

Visually, thanks in part to President Suleiman's orders, political posters have been replaced by corporate advertisements, while corporate advertisements have playfully incorporated the political (see photo above, from www.theharbins.info/julieblog)

Yet beneath this glossy surface, significant levels of political tension and violence remain:

• Heavy fighting broke out last night in the Bekaa Valley between pro-government and opposition supporters. Naharnet reports that "at least 50 [rocket propelled grenades] and mortal shells fell on the Saadnayel and Taalbaya villages."
• A game-ending fight broke out during Game 3 of the Lebanese Basketball Federation's Final Playoff Series. Supporters of the Hariri-funded Riyadi-Beirut club fought amongst themselves and with Internal Security Forces after a chant of "Ali, Ali, Ali" was interpreted by some fans not as an homage to Riyadi star Ali Mahmoud but rather as an anti-Shia taunt (for videos of parts of the fight, see this and this; for an overview of the intersection of politics, sectarianism, and Lebanese basketball, see this piece from Time Magazine).
  
• A flurry of violence in Beirut last week is delaying the formation of President Michel Suleiman's cabinet.
  

Some may ask, why the continued violence? But perhaps a more appropriate question is, why the optimism--both manufactured and real? As for the real confidence, it seems that people had been couped up in their apartments and in their neighborhoods for too long. They avoided the heart of the city for a year and a half, stayed in after more than a dozen assassination bombings, and endured three days of the heaviest internal fighting since the 1975-1990 Civil War. The Doha settlement, if nothing else, gave everyone an excuse to forget the recent past and enjoy everything Beirut has to offer once again. As for the manufactured, it's quite simple: peace and stability sell. And for a country whose most powerful economic players are in tourism and real estate, the production of peace and stability--particularly during the summer vacation months--is all the more essential for jump-starting the flow of customers and cash.

Light Posting Ahead

I'm swamped with grading and exhaustion from grading so I most likely will not be able to write very much for the next few days.

In the meantime, you should probably read about the following developments in Lebanon:

- Israel releases Hezbollah prisoner; Hezbollah releases the remains of Israeli soldiers left in Lebanon (see this take on it as well as this one)

- Probable suicide bomber near Ain al Hilwe refugee camp shot dead; bomb explosion kills army solider near Nahr al Bared

- A Daily Star editorial awkwardly, and unsarcastically, proclaims "Flag-waving is fine - so long as you use the right flag"

- Lebanese MPs continue to negotiate the composition of President Suleiman's cabinet (for example)

Beirut Real Estate Surging

From the Daily Star:

Interest in prime Beirut properties has risen since the election of a new president and the expected formation of a national unity government, real-estate companies said on Wednesday. "We expect more investors to contact us soon to buy or rent properties in Beirut Central District [BCD]. But it will take some time before these things materialize," Mounir Dowaidi, the general manager of real-estate juggernaut Solidere, told The Daily Star...

..."The demand for properties in Lebanon in general and Beirut in particular have oddly risen by 115 percent since the beginning of 2007, despite political deadlock," Joe Kanaan, general manager of Sodeco Gestion real-estate agency, said.

He added that once Michel Suleiman had been declared president, his office was flooded with inquires from Lebanese expatriates who were keen on buying houses and apartments in Achrafieh and some other parts of the capital.

"We are signing several sale contracts every day and most of these transactions are centered in Beirut," Kanaan added.

The agents agreed that Lebanese expatriates have accounted for the bulk of property purchases in Beirut since 2005.

As a result of strong demand, the per-meter price of property in Achrafieh has risen from $1,000 to $2,000 in less than two years.

"You won't find an apartment that goes for less than $350,000 in Achrafieh and if you move to more fancy places in Beirut the price will go as high as $800,000," another broker said, adding that Lebanese expatriates have bought $2.5 billion worth properties in 2007 alone.

The solution to this madness, as proposed by one real estate developer:

"People who are looking for apartments in Beirut less than $350,000 are wasting their time. I recommend that they start hunting for houses outside the capital," Kanaan said.

Freedom's just another word...

Political Demonstrations, Flag Waving, and Motorcycles Banned in Beirut, as Fighting Breaks out in the Chouf

In response to last night's clashes in Corniche al Mazra, the Central Security Council has banned political demonstrations, including the waving of party flags, from the streets of Beirut until further notice. Motorcycles, which are often used in the sort of political demonstrations in which Hezbollah and Amal engaged last night, are also banned from the capital. The guys who deliver my dinner on motorscooters from Bar Bar and Zatar W' Zeit are, unfortunately, included in this ban.

I know there is a particular context for these decisions, but there is still something deeply disturbing about a ban on political demonstrations and flag waving. Having said that, "political" has a more precise meaning here in Lebanon than in North America, particularly academic North America. The English word "political" in Lebanon generally refers to activities of political parties, not just any sort of broader power struggle, as it is known in North America.

In concordance with this declaration, Hezbollah and Amal issued a joint statement, urging their supporters to refrain from using their weapons "for any reason" and from participating in flag-waving motorcycle convoys. The parties would not be responsible for violators of these rules, Naharnet reported.

East of Beirut, in Darahat Armoun in the Chouf, fighting broke out this evening between pro-government and opposition men, killing a Lebanese soldier who was trying to intervene. It is unclear at this time to which particular groups the men belonged. Again, as I wrote yesterday, as seriously as we should take any form of armed violence, these clashes seem to be isolated incidents having more to do with individuals' political tensions and recent memories than with any sort of organized push toward further conflict. Hezbollah and Amal's call for their supporters to refrain from provocative behavior is a step in the right direction and an indication that the party leaders are in no way sanctioning this violence.

Meanwhile, Parliament will begin searching for a new prime minister tomorrow morning. The word on the street is that either current PM Fouad Siniora or majority leader Saad Hariri will accept the nomination.

In other news, Ras Beirut smells, at best, like a nasty farm right now. I'm guessing its the insect repellent they have been spraying along the corniche. Gross.

Is the Facade Really That Thin?

A day after Michel Suleiman was inaugurated President of Lebanon in a ceremony attended by all sides of the political landscape, sporadic fighting has broken out again in Beirut and the Bekaa.

While eating dinner at a seaside restaurant, we saw dozens of young men parade up and down the corniche in cars and on motorbikes waving Hezbollah and Amal flags (and a few Lebanese and Syrian Social Nationalist Party ones as well). I didn't see anyone fire any guns into the air, but we certainly heard it before we reached the corniche.

Hassan Nasrallah spoke this evening in commemoration of "Liberation Day," the anniversary of the departure of Israeli troops from the south of Lebanon in 2000. Hezbollah's armed resistance is still widely hailed in Lebanon as the reason for Israel's departure. Nasrallah said nothing extraordinarily inflammatory this evening (in fact, he gave at least lip service to reconciliation with his political rivals). But in the minutes and hours after his speech, according to Naharnet and Now Lebanon, clashes broke out in the neighborhood of Corniche al Mazraa in Beirut and in the village of Talabaaya in the Bekaa. Now Lebanon is reporting that rocket propelled grenades were fired at the Abed an-Nasser mosque in Corniche al Mazraa.

I'll update this with more details as I hear about them.

UPDATE: Ya Liban, an unapologetically pro-government news source, summarizes this evening's violence as follows:

1- When [Nasrallah] started his speech his supporters used fire arms to shoot in the air but in doing so they injured 2 people who were taken to a nearby hospital for treatment

2- After his speech ended his followers again used fire arms to shoot in the air but in doing so they injured this time 16 people who were taken to a nearby hospital for treatment

3- In the Beqaa valley Valley village of Taalabaya Hezbollah-led opposition clashed with the ruling majority supporters

4- More violence was reported in Beirut, which was blamed on Nasrallah's speech. Amal and Hezbollah gunmen opened fire and hurled rocks in the direction of Tarik al-Jedideh and Corniche al-Mazraa . RPGs were also fired at the Abed an-Nasser mosque. The Lebanese army has been deployed and has cut off the roads between Corniche al-Mazraa, Barbour and Tarik al-Jedideh. The wounded have been transferred to nearby hospitals.

This is an unfortunate development, but it should not incite panic. Nasrallah gave no indication in his speech that he wished Hezbollah and its allies in the streets to begin using their arms again. It is therefore safe to assume that the clashes that broke out this evening were fairly isolated events, or at least, not dictated from above. Political tensions, increasingly along sectarian lines, are still very ripe in Lebanon, especially in neighborhoods such as Tarik al-Jedideh and Corniche al-Mazraa, where fighting (and casualties) was quite intense earlier this month. While we might unfortunately see more of these kinds of armed skirmishes, I don't expect tonight's events to escalate into anything more serious or spread to many other areas.

UPDATE II: The Daily Star just posted a short article on the clashes in Corniche al-Mazraa:

Security sources told The Daily Star that the fight broke out when supporters of Hizbullah and Amal paraded in the streets of Corniche al-Mazraa, a predominantly Sunni neighborhood, shortly after Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah concluded his speech to mark Liberation Day.

Sources added that after verbal insults were traded, the fight degenerated and the two groups exchanged gunfire.

The exact number of casualties was not immediately clear. Security sources said nine people were hurt, while Future Television, which is owned by the family of parliamentary majority head and Sunni leader Saad Hariri, said 16 people were wounded in what it called "attacks by Amal and Hizbullah supporters."

President Suleiman

The election of Michel Suleiman was met with great fanfare in the capital today, as foreign dignitaries from around the world (including a Congressional delegation from the United States) crowded into Lebanon's parliament building to witness the long overdue event. Afterwards, the sounds of gunfire, fireworks, and horn honking filled the Beirut air.

Suleiman's (pronounced s[a]lay-MAWN and sometimes transliterated as Sleiman) role, until yesterday, as chief of the Lebanese Armed Forces, made him an attractive candidate to nearly every MP. The army is the most respected institution in Lebanon, mostly because it is fiercely non-sectarian and generally free from corruption. Many people, including all the major political parties, also hailed the army's response to the presence of al Qaeda-inspired foreign militants in the Nahr al Bared Palestinian refugee camp last summer (though many others, particularly Palestinians whose homes were destroyed by the army, continue to criticize Suleiman's violent approach to the conflict; see this, as well as this). Suleiman, nonetheless, begins his presidency under general perceptions of neutrality and patriotism.

It will be interesting to see how long those perceptions hold. In his inaugural speech, Suleiman hinted that he was more likely to lean toward the March 14th governing coalition than to the March 8th opposition. Two passages illustrate this likely stance. First, Suleiman noted,

We still confirm our commitment to and respect for all UN resolutions … especially for the martyr Rafik Hariri and all our martyrs (Now Lebanon).

This statement elicited the loudest applause of any during his roughly twenty-minute address. The BBC telecast, however, noted that some MPs did not applaud. The investigation into former Prime Minister Hariri's death has been a quietly contentious matter ever since he was assassinated on February 14, 2005. There are many politicians and commentators who believe that the opposition is trying to prevent the Lebanese government from cooperating with UN investigators. The Syrian government, which enjoys a now muted alliance with the opposition, is at the heart of the investigation.

Second, according to Now Lebanon's transcription of the address, Suleiman uttered these statements, clearly in reference to Hezbollah's use of force just over two weeks ago:

Any gun is only pointed at the enemy, and we will not allow it to be aimed elsewhere...The continuation of the resistance depends on the people’s need for [the resistance], and its achievements should not be used by internal struggles.

Grumblings about Hezbollah's about-face on its longtime pledge to never use its weapons on another Lebanese can still be heard just beneath the surface of the pomp, circumstance, and "back-to-normality" of the past five days. So this statement, on the one hand, could be interpreted as an appeasement to those factions. On the other hand, it could signal Suleiman's intentions to reign in the power of Hezbollah, something with which America and Israel, as well as many people aligned with March 14th, would be thrilled. The United States' continued assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces (though a pittance compared to US aid given to Lebanon's only major enemy) could play a role in Suleiman's approach to the opposition.

In contrast to these statements, however, Suleiman also said that he favored "brotherly ties" with Syria, which, if nothing else, is a bone for the pro-Syrian opposition to chew on.

We'll see how long the honeymoon lasts.